As of May 2022

Percent

Across the world, low- and middle-income countries are struggling with the rising cost of their debt, sudden price increases for energy, fertilizer and food, and the likelihood of interest rate increases.

According to UNCTAD, there are 107 countries facing at least one of three shocks: rising food prices, rising energy prices or tighter financial conditions. All three shocks are being faced by 69 countries:  25 in Africa, 25 in Asia and the Pacific, and 19 in Latin America and the Pacific.

Scenario 1: Ukraine is slowly strangled

Russia consolidates its land bridge to the Kremlin-controlled Crimean Peninsula and, without securing complete control of the rest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, destroys or blocks the port city of Odesa leaving the country effectively landlocked. Putin continues to bomb infrastructure elsewhere across Ukraine and annexes parts of the south and east, further destabilizing the country as a fully functioning state. He declares a “victory” while successfully suppressing dissent at home. 

All-Round Strategic Partnership

1. Germany

Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

1. EUROPEAN UNION
2. France
3. Greece
4. Hungary
5. Italy
6. Poland
7. Portugal
8. Spain

Friendly Strategic Partnership

1. Austria

Strategic Partnership

1. Bulgaria
2. Cyprus
3. Czech Republic
4. Ireland

Comprehensive Friendly Cooperative Partnership

China is seeking not only to enjoy a central position on the global stage, commensurate with its economic and military power, but also to reshape, alter, and redefine elements of the existing system to better fit its views and interests.

Source: ECFR (European Council on Foreign Relations) 

Based on a survey of 8,000 citizens in 10 countries

Public opinion in Europe is beginning to diverge on whether or not to continue the efforts made to support Kyiv. The group of ‘pacifists’ represents 35% while the group of ‘hawks’ represents 22%. A fifth of Europeans hesitate between the two sides: They are hostile to Russia and in favor of a hard-line policy towards it, they also fear the effects of a long war. 23% of those questioned are undecided.

1. Agriculture, food production, biodiversity and ecosystems, pollution
2. Agriculture, food production, biodiversity and ecosystems, pollution (bis)
3. Climate change, energy, transport
4. Climate change, energy, transport (bis)
5. Sustainable consumption, packaging and production
6. Information, awareness, dialogue and life-style
7. Healthy food and healthy lifestyle
8. Reinforce the healthcare system
9. A broader understanding of Health
10. Equal access to health for all
11. Sustainable Growth and innovation

1. Afghanistan : Population: 41.7 million. People in Need: 24.4 millon. Humanitarian and displacement crisis
2. Azerbaijan: Nagorno-Karabakh
3. Central African Republic: Instability
4. Democratic Republic of Congo: Population: 92.4 million, People in Need: 27 million, People internally displaced: 5.6 million Instability. Conflict and disease compound crisis
5. East China Sea: Territorial Disputes
6. Egypt: Instability
7. Ethiopia: Population 117.9 million, People in Need: 25.9 million, People internally displaced: 4.2 million War and Climate

Any deal between Russia and Ukraine to stop the ongoing war that results in anything less than the status quo ante in February 2014 will inevitably mean that Russian military aggression against and invasion of Ukraine, as well as the other grave violations of international law and the fundamental principles that underpin the European security order, will have been rewarded. What is at stake here is not just Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The war in Ukraine is likely to continue at a high level of intensity through 2022, and at a greater or lesser tempo for years to come.  There are several factors that can prolong the war. The first is that the issues at stake for Ukraine and Russia are existential and are not susceptible to compromise. Ukraine is fighting for its right to self-determination. Its government and people have shown that they are prepared to make great sacrifices to defend their national sovereignty.